Fed Says Even With ‘Modest Hiring,’ Worker Shortages Occurring

美国联邦储备委员会说招聘活动在全国普遍有所改善，特别是最后几个星期的一些高科技和能源生产方面。

The Federal Reserve says hiring activity in the nation generally has improved in the last several weeks particularly in some of the high tech and energy-producing parts of the country. In its just-issued Beige Book report on the economic condition of the country, the Fed says that in more than half the districts, which carve the nation into

12 financial geographies, it s seeing modest gains in hiring. However even in these areas, the Fed got mixed signals from the employers and staffing firms it contacts for insights on economic conditions. For example in the Chicago district, covering the states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the fed said a number of firms were putting hiring on hold and had delayed temp-to-perm conversion decisions until next year. In Richmond, the Fed found the employment market less positive than it did when it published its last report on October 10. The one common thread running through each District s report on its employment market is a reference to the shortage of skilled labor. While different skills are at issue, depending on the District, almost every one says employers and staffing firms mention shortages. The Atlanta Fed says some of its agricultural contacts mentioned a shortage of workers in that industry; the Kansas City District mentioned a shortage of truck drivers; and in Dallas, truck drivers and energy workers are hard to find. The so-called Beige Book is a compilation of anecdotal reports from companies of all types, as well as temp and contract labor firms and employment agencies. Unlike the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly employment report, the Federal Reserve doesn t tabulate specific data, relying instead on the observations of hundreds of contacts across the country. These are compiled into a report, which is issued eight times a year. The report issued Wednesday said economic activity expanded at a measured pace in the weeks since the last report. The Boston, New York, and Philadelphia districts had weaker growth, with New York s attributed mostly to Hurricane Sandy. Boston, which covers all of New England, experienced a slight slowdown, with its strong IT industry reporting weaker-than-expected activity through October, with revenues in the third quarter roughly on par with year-earlier levels. The full report is available here. Below are excerpts from each district s report concerning employment, labor supply, and wages. Summary Modest improvements in hiring activity were reported by most Districts. Labor markets were generally described as improving modestly by Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas. Staffing firms, according to Boston and Cleveland, experienced improved business conditions. However, Richmond reported that labor markets in general were weaker than in the last report, citing examples of soft demand and an unwillingness of some manufacturers to hire long-term unemployed workers. Contacts for Boston noted that demand for office and clerical assistants and accountants remained weak, and Cleveland reported that hiring across industries was generally sluggish except in autos. Atlanta indicated that employment agencies were seeing a pickup in orders for temporary help. Some large employers, however, announced plans to move toward hiring more part-time, rather than full-time, employees. Chicago reported that a number of firms were putting hiring on hold and had delayed temp-to-perm conversion decisions until next year. With respect to the upcoming holiday season, Cleveland reported that retailers were planning to hire the same number of temporary workers as last year, while Boston and Atlanta noted that some retailers were expecting to hire more help over the holidays. Finally, contacts in a number of Districts reported difficulties finding qualified workers in some specialized occupations. Wage pressures were generally characterized as subdued or contained throughout much of the nation, according to the latest District reports. Virtually every District described wage growth as modest at best. Contacts in the Atlanta District attributed flatness in wages to the large number of applicants for newly posted positions. Richmond reported that manufacturing and retail wage growth edged up, but wage growth slowed at non-retail firms. In addition, non-labor costs were increasing in the Chicago District, mostly due to health-care costs. St. Louis cited stable wages but added that non-labor costs in manufacturing were rising. Minneapolis noted pockets of stronger wage growth in some geographical areas, such as North Dakota where oil drilling was pushing up demand for workers. However, even this pressure was easing in recent weeks. Kansas City noted strengthening in wage growth among specialized positions in transportation and high-tech firms. Finally, San Francisco noted that limited hiring and abundant labor supply were holding down wage and compensation increases. However, San Francisco added that a few cases of wage pressures were occurring among truck drivers, health-care workers, and entry level positions in areas with low unemployment. 1st District Boston We continue to hear occasional complaints of difficulty finding qualified workers. A pharmaceutical manufacturer reports hiring 75 new people this year but still having 58 openings which they have been trying to fill for a long time and which they do not anticipate to be able to fill this year They attribute the difficulty to their need for highly qualified scientists with specific sets of skills. A manufacturer of analytical laboratory equipment finds it increasingly difficult to find qualified people in China. New England staffing firms generally report improved business conditions, with most describing business since Labor Day as pretty good. Year-over-year revenue changes in the third quarter varied widely, from down slightly to up by about

20 percent. Labor demand is up slightly in the IT and engineering sectors, and one contact reports renewed activity in the manufacturing sector. However, demand for office and clerical assistants and accountants remains weak. In terms of labor supply, candidates with high-end skill sets such as nurses, mechanical and electric engineers, and software developers remain hard to find. In addition, one contact reports that turnover has recently decreased, as those with jobs are hunkering down for the holiday season. Nevertheless, bill rates and pay rates have gone largely unchanged since August. The outlook among New England staffing contacts is generally consistent with that of three months ago, with most expecting more robust growth in 2013. 2nd District New York Labor market conditions have weakened, probably temporarily, in the aftermath of Sandy. A major New York City employment agency specializing in office jobs reports a sharp drop-off in business after the storm, because many firms either shut down or operated without key personnel. Separately, a growing number of manufacturing contacts not only in the New York City area but also in upstate New York report declines in employment at their firms. However, businesses in other sectors report little or no change in employment. Contacts in both manufacturing and other sectors expect headcounts to remain steady, on net, over the next six months. 3rd District Philadelphia Most District staffing firms reported an ongoing slowdown in activity, although a few business lines associated with warehousing and distribution in advance of the pending holiday season were the strongest in over a decade. Staffing firms tended to suffer disproportionately greater